• Robert F Kennedy Jr launched an independent presidential bid today (Monday)

• On paper it looks like Kennedy would pull more from Trump than Biden

  • Due to his anti-vaccine positions and positive coverage from far right media

  • RNC chair Ronna McDaniels released a statement calling Kennedy a "typically elitist liberal"

  • Other Republicans have started attacking RFK Jr

  • Current national polling shows higher approval ratings for Kennedy among GOP voters than Democratic

• There aren't many polls

  • A lot are contradictory

• Third party candidacies can be unpredictable

• A third candidate doesn't have to win (or even get many votes) in order to change an election

  • Democrats are also worried about this candidacy

• Concern about splitting the anti-Trump vote

• RFK Jr's surviving 4 siblings put out a joint statement

  • “Bobby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision or judgment.”

• Other 3rd party candidates

  • Cornel West did so last week

    • He is a philosopher and black social leader

  • In addition No Labels is intensifying recruitment efforts

  • The libertarian party is expected to hold a nominating party in May

• Qualifying for the ballot in states is extremely hard for third party candidates

  • No labels has secured a presidential ballot line in 11 states.

    • This is due to the extensive funding and ability to use paid signature gathers

  • The libertarian party has ballot access in most states

  • An outsider candidate doesn't need to be on the ballot in every state to have an impact

• It is unlikely a 3rd party candidate would win

  • The concern is that hey would siphon off votes

  • It has been over 50 years since a third party candidate has won a single electoral vote

PC: AP