Currently race is rated as Lean D (bit of a place holder)

• If Santos is the nominee then it will be Solid D

• If santos is not the nominee then the race would fall as a Toss Up (with current political environment)

• He is unlikely to win his primary

  1. Most likely (in my opinion) way for him to win a primary would be if it was very crowded and the "anti-santos" vote was split too much

Santos' lies has triggered multiple federal, local and house investigations

• The FEC papers he filed last month for a reelection campaign lets him fund raise for a reelection campaign or legal fees connected his investigations

Currently Santos has one primary challenger

• He is likely to have more (my opinion)

A January Sienna Poll had santos favorability 8 - 76 in his district with 71% saying he should resign